Monday, March 30, 2009

Watch the Insurers

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=azkrwz39ygKo&refer=news

Lincoln Financial (LNC)
Lincoln blew up today after it announced that it does not qualify for the program allowing banks to issue bonds with FDIC insurance.

LNC was down over -38% today on all-time record volume! That is the Big Boys unloading – after the stock is down from $70 to $10.

Financials (XLF) lost almost -9% today. Insurance (KIE) lost almost -9%.

I figure that they will need to finance TARP 2.0 soon and the only way they will be able to ram it through Congress is to cause another panic. It would make since to use the Insurance companies as the excuse, instead of the banks everybody is so angry with.

Intel (INTC)
Intel is apparently trying to raise $1 billion by selling stock at half of last year’s high.

Commodities
So many of these stocks fell between -7 and -10% today. How can anybody in their right mind be buying anything right now, with that type of risk inherent to nearly all stock holdings?

Remember how they ran the Dow +300 points in one hour and nine minutes last week? Well, tomorrow is the end of the 1st Quarter, so expect prices to ramp up in Asia to juice prices higher for the benefit of mutual fund statements. The Dow was up 100 points in the last hour today. Let’s see how it plays out.

The weaker the rally, the less inclined the Big Boys are to hold any of the stuff they bought the last few weeks. In the mean time, we are in this no-mans-land when there is light volume and massive volatility. As prices fall, we need to see real buyers show up.

No comments: