Wednesday, April 7, 2010

This Is What Government Intervention Looks Like

The Swiss Franc
The Swiss government decided that the Swiss Franc was getting too strong versus the Euro, so they sold a bunch of Francs to weaken the price. Look at the massive volume on the ETF (FXF) and the abnormal, massive intraday trading volatility!

Now FXF is comfortably back inside the downtrend that mirrors the downtrend of the Euro. Because of the intervention, it is as if FXF never broke out in the first place.


US Treasuries
The 20-year US Treasury ETF (TLT) broke critical support on Monday (Green Line). It did so on fears that the economy is expanding and the Fed will have to raise rates sooner, rather than later. The reality is that The Fed will buy as many bonds as it has to put a cap on interest rates. Today, somebody came in in massive size and punched TLT back up through resistance to get it solidly back into its trading range.

Never bet against the guy with the keys to the printing press… Rates will only rise when it suits the aims of The Fed.

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