Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Financials Already Back At Key Resistance

I want to show you how the spike up in Bank Stocks has played out in relation to past rallies.

All you have here is a sector rallying up into declining moving averages (Black Green & Blue Lines). That is the definition of a Bear Market.

Look at how each time the Financials have spiked down, they have rallied back up into moving averages and then cracked again. I don’t think this time will be any different.


Financials are now short-term overbought and may reverse hard from these moving averages.

Each spike down in RSI(2) below 10 has set up a nice rally in FAZ.
The inverse of this is the that XLF has rallied into moving averages and rolling over.
Maybe this move is different, but I think the setup will need to be traded.

Here is my trigger –
I will use a break of the Hourly 15-EMA (Black Line) to get me into the Short Financial ETFs (I’ll use FAZ).
The Black Arrows are where the Daily RSI (2) got below 10.
Those have proven to be pretty good trades.
I hope we don’t gap down big tomorrow…

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