Friday, November 14, 2008

I’m just going to show you pictures today

On a day with a move of this magnitude, I want to take a step back and look at the big picture.

Today’s move started because Australia couldn’t take it any more and had its Central Bank go in and Buy Aussie Dollars and sell Japanese Yen. The selling of Yen makes it cheaper to borrow in Yen, which allows investors to borrow in Yen and buy risky asset in other countries (the Yen Carry Trade).
The Aussie Dollar (FXA) and The Euro (FXE) had nice moves today, but they are merely blips on the big picture. FXA has to get up through all of that volume in the Green Box. That is going to put a cap on the value of the Aussie Dollar for a long time. It could bounce all the way up to 75, but it is still in a Bear Market and any purchase is just a trade.
The Euro looks like it is consolidating the last leg down, before the next leg down. Another Bear Market.

The US Dollar ($USD) put in what may be a decent top today. Again, it was on Central Bank intervention, so take it with a grain of salt. But it could easily pull back towards 82 or 80.

Sectors
I want to look at individual sectors, because the market is just a group of sectors.
Banks are on the brink of another Major leg lower. Everybody can see the chart and knows where the big boys will come in and protect price (the Green Line). So everybody has got their buy orders in place for a trade and the market has a huge, quick rally. Right into massive volume (Green Box).
I don’t think banks will be rallying much from here.

If you want to see a textbook Bear Market, then look at this chart of the Finance Sector (XLF). It is all sharp drops, followed by consolidation patterns into declining moving averages and then new legs down to lower lows.
Now there is that massive overhang of resistance (Red Dashed Line). But the red line is at 18 and price is at 13, so there could be some money to be made here in the near term, IF buyers show up. You could just as easily see a reversal of today and you get your head handed to you.

Here are Consumer Staples (XLP) (Food, Toothpaste, the stuff you use every day). They are just wedging up into massive volume and declining moving averages. That is one scary chart!

Energy (XLE) is no different. It could still rally a few more percent from here, but it looks very Bearish.
Same goes for Utilities (XLU) .
Basic Materials (XLB) look like Energy. Materials could rally sharply from 24 to 30ish, but the trend is down.

Same goes for Technology (XLK), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Healthcare (XLV).

So what I see right now is an oversold market with the potential to rally back up into declining moving averages and gigantic volume.

The only thing that may have changed is the size of the next bounce may be bigger than the size of the last bounce. So I may be looking to buy some things for trades, with tight stops.
We’ll see how it plays out. I’ll take what the market gives me.

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