Thursday, November 6, 2008

If I am right on this one, then you aren't going to want to read it

The last 6 weeks or so has seen a market experience incredible volatility. The Dow would trade in 800 to 1000 point ranges every day. The 1-day chart would look like a 1-year chart in terms of percentage moves.

The other characteristic was that the market would trade violently from key technical level to key technical level with virtually no resistance to any moves.

I noted these traits and even posted intraday charts on several occasions to illustrate how the traders had taken over and real buyers were nowhere to be seen.

I think I know what is going on, and I don't think I like the outcome.
There is no doubt in my mind that the government has used stock price appreciation as a policy tool. There is also no doubt in my mind that the Fed would buy stock futures to accelerate prices higher when needed to prop prices up. You can take my opinion for what it is, an opinion. But I have been pretty spot on in this Bear Market.

The rally into the election had classic fingerprint of Fed manipulation all over it. The markets would accelerate higher in overnight trading, when there is little selling volume to contend with and then you have these 200 to 300 point rallies in the last hour to make the price of the Dow look good for the headlines of the evening news. You can deconstruct the recent rally and see that the majority of the gains were done on these last hour moon shots and in overnight trading.

I think the Fed has taken a powder now that the election is over.

I think the markets have experienced this massive intraday volatility, because nobody wants to buy stocks for the long term at these prices. That tells me that prices are too high to find buyers.
If prices are too high to find buyers, then they need to fall to a level where there will again be an equilibrium between buyer and sellers. That is not a good thing if you bought recently or are fully invested in your accounts.

Don't kill the messenger, I am just telling you what I see and what is the most reasonable explanation for it.

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